Superbowl XLV
I know nothing about American Football. I've never watched a game of American Football. However, with all the hype and the struggle to find anything to put into a cross-sport treble for Monday, has left me wanting a bet on this.
I've decided to approach the game from a "value" perspective, using a combination of statistics, which have some rather interesting results.
If you pool all of the games played in the regular (17 week) season together, Green Bay Packers' total score would be 388-240 and Pittsburgh Steelers would be 375-224. The Steelers score 13 less points, but concede 16 less. Pretty well matched. When you delve deeper into the stats, it reveals that GBP score 63.3% of the points in each game in which they are involved - Steelers 61.9%.
Obviously if the two sides met, they couldn't both take over 50% of the points, so the adjustment would mean that if GBP and PS played each other, GBP would take 49.7% of the points and PS 50.3%. Pretty tight. From this limited data set, we can imply that Packers have a 49.7% chance of winning the game and PS 50.3%. The implied "fair" odds would be GBP @ 2.01 and PS @ 1.99. If anyone offers odds greater than this, then it should be considered a value bet. At time of writing, the following prices were available at Paddy Power - GBP @ 1.66 and PS @ 2.25.
Green Bay Packers are much shorter than expected, Pittsburgh Steelers are available at a few ticks bigger than I believe they should be. If I was looking for a single bet, I would probably lay GBP - as the return is greater than the risk. As it's going to form part of a multiple, I'll be backing, not laying.
Conclusion: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 2.25 to win the Superbowl. Will I be watching? No.
Betdaq: The Other Exchange
Now that I'd got my Betfair balance up a bit, I decided to have a go at the Betdaq matched bet. The beauty about this one is that the profit can be locked out after just one bet, as the offer is a no-lose. I'm going about this slightly differently, because of the lure of Quidco. I'll explain.
Quidco offer £20 cashback to all new accounts at Betdaq, where you deposit and risk at least £30. The Betdaq no-lose offer is subject to a maximum bet of £20. If I were to stake £20 and lose my first bet, I would receive a £20 free bet and no cashback. However, if I stake £30 and lose the first bet, I would receive a £20 free bet plus £20 quidco cashback - in essence I've lost £10 of my stake but gained £20 from Quidco, so a net gain of £10. Confused?
Thanks to Quidco and matched betting, I'm locking in a minimum of £20 profit, from a £30 stake. Normally in matched betting, the aim is to lose at the bookie and win at the exchange. That way your Betfair balance rises which means you can avoid depositing large sums of money out of your bank account to cover any liabilites. In this instance, it would be preferable to win the first bet at the bookies (Betdaq) as my stake is larger than the free bet should it lose. Therefore I won't be rushing this offer - my first bet will have to be on something I think has a very realistic chance of winning.
Another benefit of doing this now is that Betdaq is running a reduced commission until the end of March - it will take just 2.5% of per-book profits, instead of the usual 5%.
Paddy Power: The Profit
The profit match for the Paddy Power bet today was Inverness CT vs Morton. The draw was available to back at 4.2 (little over 3/1) and to lay at Betfair at 4.4 - a nice little arb.
Total profit from Paddy Power: £13.97.
Matched Betting isn’t easy
Nothing in this game is easy, as the blog shows so far!
Paddy Power but a block on my account overnight, so it's lucky that Crawley failed to beat Kettering tonight, at least they aren't withholding winnings, just my free bet. I have to verify details with a long list of utility bills, etc. The only thing I wasn't happy about sending was a photo of the front and rear of my debit card - why on earth would they want that? Anyway, that's still ongoing, we'll have to see how long it takes them to sort me out!
In matched betting, it's far better to keep winning on your exchange lay bets on Betfair, as when you find a bet with good odds, more often than not it's at the higher end of the odds chart and your Betfair liabilty for the lay will be huge. If you keep winning at Betfair, then your account balance is topped up each time, so you only have to deposit into each bookmaker, rather than waiting days for a withdrawal to come through.
There's also a trade-off between getting the most profit out of each matched bet and how many days away the best market price match is. I normally look up to three days in advance to bag my bonus. That way you'll usually hit midweek and weekend football, amongst many other sports that are on midweek. I try to make my first bet on something the same day as the deposit, then will bag the bonus within four days.
888sport. A mistake.
I made a mistake.
Didn't read the T&C's for 888sport's offer. It wasn't a matched bet, it was a no-lose bet. Bet £20 and if the selection loses, you'll get a £20 free bet. If the selection wins, you keep the winnings but no free bet.
Muggins here, backed 'Over 2.5 goals' for Man Utd v Villa at just 1.61 (8/13 in fractional odds) but laid at Betfair for 1.70. Overall, a £1.41 loss at 888sport, when Man Utd beat Aston Villa 3-1.
Live and learn, onto the next one now... Paddy Power!