Snooker: The Welsh Open
Snooker is one of my favourite "day-off" sports. When I'm not at work, there's nothing better than sitting back, feet up, cup of tea in hand reading a book or magazine with snooker on in the background.
In any first round competition, you're going to have fairly short priced favourites who should win. Stars like Neil Robertson, Ronnie O'Sullivan, John Higgins et al, should all be progressing to the next stage, at least. In these matches I tend to look away from the outrights, as a strong favourite in a 7 frame game will be too short. The places to look are the handicap market, +/-1.5 frames are on offer for each match or also to the correct score market.
For my first round bets I chose to do a perm on the correct scores involving the two Tuesday evening games and the two Wednesday afternoon games. Correct scores pay around 4/1 (5.0) depending on the score, and for the bet I would pick two scores from four matches, which results in 16 fourfold accumulators. To win, each match must finish with one of the two scores chosen. Games I class as tough games I have selected 4-2 and 4-3 victories, and easier matches 4-1 and 4-2. It's rare to see 4-0 in these first round matches.
The selections are as follows and to 1pt unit stakes, the shortest priced return would be over 100pts profit.
Dott to beat Burnett - 4-1 or 4-2
Robertson to beat Bond - 4-1 or 4-2
Hendry to beat Perry - 4-2 or 4-3
Maguire to beat Greene - 4-2 or 4-3
Fulham v Chelsea
Chelsea are playing awfully at the moment. Neither team score many goals at home or away and the fact that it's a derby will tighten the game up. Chelsea should really win the game, but current form and non-belief is apparent and Fulham have enough players to neutralise any Chelsea pressure.
Selections for tonight:
1 pt - Fulham+1 @ 11/10
1 pt - Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5
Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Not so much a blog post, more an advice of a selection for the upcoming pro-am Golf in Pebble Beach.
Blake Adams has had a troubled career - injuries blighting his early years but progressively things improved throughout 2008 and 2009, where he led a tournament, but dropped two shots to finish second. Last year saw a top-10 finish at the Pebble Beach pro-am and a three-way tie for second in the Byron Nelson Championship.
He's one of just four entrants into this year's tournament who holds a course stroke average under 70 which should stand him in good stead for a crack at improving on second this year.
Betfair currently offer 450.0 for Adams to win the tournament, which represents a 0.22% chance of winning. In truth, I think they're probably right - if he's in a good position, he has history of dropping shots under pressure in the latter stages of a competition. I've staked 0.5 pts on the win with a view to laying off when his odds drop below 50.0.
Selection: Blake Adams @ 450.0 at Betfair. 0.5pts win.
Huddersfield v Carlisle
Huddersfield and Carlisle have met three times already in 2011, sharing a win a piece, Carlisle's more convincing and a draw. The first leg of this match ended 4-0 to Carlisle, last year's beaten JPT finalists.
Carlisle arrive at the Galpharm on the back of two league defeats in February one to tonight's opponents and the other to struggling Walsall. Huddersfield have faired better and won both league matches against Carlisle and recent losing semi-finalists Exeter.
The 4-0 headstart that Carlisle receive should see them progress safely to face Brentford at Wembley. If they manage a goal at any point in the match, Huddersfield would require six to win.
I think we'll see a victory for Huddersfield on the night, with a fairly early first goal. I've picked out some inviting looking bets below.
Selection 1: 1pt win - Huddersfield to be winning at Half-Time @ 2.3 - 888sport
Selection 2: 1pt win Time of first goal 0-15 min @ 3.25 - 888sport
Robert Kubica
I was halfway through writing an article about how Robert Kubica was my outsider tip for the F1 title this coming season, when I heard the news about his unfortunate accident. Leaving a rally stage on a stretcher with a severly injured arm, shoulder and leg has ended that probability.
The Renault R31 has looked extremely impressive in pre-season testing, though any F1 fan will tell you that winter testing times mean nothing. I genuinely think that the Renault is quick - they've brought some revolutionary new concepts and they do appear to work. A driver of Kubica's quality over-achieved in Renault's 2010 car - securing three podiums for the team whilst his Russian team-mate Petrov could only muster four top-ten finishes.
Renault probably thought they had a good outside shot at the title with the Kubica - R31 combination.
As it happens, there's a spare seat at Renault - temporarily given to Bruno Senna, the reserve driver. This is where the Renault bosses start banging their heads against the wall. They've got a potentially race winning car that was due several days more development work with one of the most talented drivers on the grid - which is now essentially in the hands of two pay-drivers, one of whom is very good at crashing and the other with no development experience. Where next for the R31?
Nick Heidfeld. Eleven seasons of Formula One experience under his belt, twelve podium finishes and without a drive for 2011. If Renault seriously think this car can win races, Heidfeld is the man they need behind the wheel.
Exeter vs Brentford
After picking the wrong team in last night's 50:50 Superbowl XLV, I'm looking at rescuing the 7th of February with a correct result in tonight's Johnstone's Paint Trophy area final between Exeter and Brentford. Both teams languishing in the middle of League One, having miserable starts to 2011, Exeter taking one unconvincing 2-1 victory from seven against relegation candidates Walsall. Brentford managed double the amount of wins, against bottom side Dagenham & Redbridge and fellow mid-tablers Plymouth.
The table doesn't lie - both teams sit on exactly the same number of points, with only goal difference seperating them. Brentford score less, but concede less. This has all the signs of a 50:50. The first leg was a 1-1 draw.
On the basis of this and the odds available, I've decided to back Brentford at odds of 3.4 - which is too big. Their away form hasn't been fantastic, but they are guaranteed to raise their game for a cup match and a possibilty of setting up a Wembley appearance later in the season. Exeter don't seem to have enough in the tank, even with the return of Jamie Cureton, to put up too much of a fight.
Selection: Brentford @ 3.4.
Superbowl XLV
I know nothing about American Football. I've never watched a game of American Football. However, with all the hype and the struggle to find anything to put into a cross-sport treble for Monday, has left me wanting a bet on this.
I've decided to approach the game from a "value" perspective, using a combination of statistics, which have some rather interesting results.
If you pool all of the games played in the regular (17 week) season together, Green Bay Packers' total score would be 388-240 and Pittsburgh Steelers would be 375-224. The Steelers score 13 less points, but concede 16 less. Pretty well matched. When you delve deeper into the stats, it reveals that GBP score 63.3% of the points in each game in which they are involved - Steelers 61.9%.
Obviously if the two sides met, they couldn't both take over 50% of the points, so the adjustment would mean that if GBP and PS played each other, GBP would take 49.7% of the points and PS 50.3%. Pretty tight. From this limited data set, we can imply that Packers have a 49.7% chance of winning the game and PS 50.3%. The implied "fair" odds would be GBP @ 2.01 and PS @ 1.99. If anyone offers odds greater than this, then it should be considered a value bet. At time of writing, the following prices were available at Paddy Power - GBP @ 1.66 and PS @ 2.25.
Green Bay Packers are much shorter than expected, Pittsburgh Steelers are available at a few ticks bigger than I believe they should be. If I was looking for a single bet, I would probably lay GBP - as the return is greater than the risk. As it's going to form part of a multiple, I'll be backing, not laying.
Conclusion: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 2.25 to win the Superbowl. Will I be watching? No.
Betdaq: The Other Exchange
Now that I'd got my Betfair balance up a bit, I decided to have a go at the Betdaq matched bet. The beauty about this one is that the profit can be locked out after just one bet, as the offer is a no-lose. I'm going about this slightly differently, because of the lure of Quidco. I'll explain.
Quidco offer £20 cashback to all new accounts at Betdaq, where you deposit and risk at least £30. The Betdaq no-lose offer is subject to a maximum bet of £20. If I were to stake £20 and lose my first bet, I would receive a £20 free bet and no cashback. However, if I stake £30 and lose the first bet, I would receive a £20 free bet plus £20 quidco cashback - in essence I've lost £10 of my stake but gained £20 from Quidco, so a net gain of £10. Confused?
Thanks to Quidco and matched betting, I'm locking in a minimum of £20 profit, from a £30 stake. Normally in matched betting, the aim is to lose at the bookie and win at the exchange. That way your Betfair balance rises which means you can avoid depositing large sums of money out of your bank account to cover any liabilites. In this instance, it would be preferable to win the first bet at the bookies (Betdaq) as my stake is larger than the free bet should it lose. Therefore I won't be rushing this offer - my first bet will have to be on something I think has a very realistic chance of winning.
Another benefit of doing this now is that Betdaq is running a reduced commission until the end of March - it will take just 2.5% of per-book profits, instead of the usual 5%.
Paddy Power: The Profit
The profit match for the Paddy Power bet today was Inverness CT vs Morton. The draw was available to back at 4.2 (little over 3/1) and to lay at Betfair at 4.4 - a nice little arb.
Total profit from Paddy Power: £13.97.