For August I've decided to carry a theme into my non-Golf betting in picking 50:50s only and spread betting. Betting on Golf gives a thrill because of the high odds and potential returns of thousands from small outlays. More often than not I've been trading my outright Golf bets of late, trying to green-up before the final day's play. If I was a gambler I'd have won big, but with my trading hat on, I've secured small, but regular profits. Thomas Levet was backed at over 300 on Betfair to win the French Open, and laid off to secure a £45 green-screen. Sadly, the Frenchman went on to win the tournament, so instead of a Steve Palmer facespitter, I was left with enough for another few weeks stakes.

Recently I opened a new account with SportingIndex to have a go at Spread Betting with £100 risk free gambling. I'm still learning and spotting the available opportunities will take time and patience.

So the plan for August is to show a log of every single bet I place, hopefully from discouraging me from being silly and betting on unknown horses/dogs. Every bet will have some sort of reasoning explained and weekly screenshots will occur. Hope you enjoy following my progress and if you back any of my selections, leave a comment to let me know!

If I hadn't read Steve Palmer's book, I wouldn't have done the bet at all!

The Honda Classic was a frustrating contest for me, successfully picked four top ten players, including second and third but no winner, as you can read here.

I'll be following the same pattern for my bets for this tournament, and including a few bets that I don't normally consider, but have added for a bit of extra entertainment.  Pre-event picks will be golfers who tend to start tournaments well, with the hope their odds will shorten over the first two days to provide some laying opportunities which will create free bets on the outsiders.  Before the third round, selections will be made (and pressed up on if already backed) by analysing the first two rounds and previous stats from PGAtour.com - looking out for who is likely to build upon good opening rounds.

My pre tournament selections are made on Betfair now and are as follows:

1pt M. Kuchar @ 28.0
1pt B. Haas @ 40.0

0.5pts S. Stricker @ 50.0
0.5pts B. Crane @ 95.0
0.5pts C. Hoffman @ 360.0

I'll also be adding a first-round three-ball accumulator as I'll be watching the tournament whilst at work. In addition, I'll be having some very small stake doubles (maybe even each-way doubles) combining the winner of the Cadillac with the winner of the other tournament - the Puerto Rican Open (featured Jerry Kelly as favourite). More on these as prices become available.

My pre-tournament picks gave me Yang (odds of 44.0) who finished second (8 under par) and McDowell (15.5) tied for sixth (one under). Singh, Marino, Gillis and Immelman all failed to make the cut. I was very impressed by Gary Woodland, a player who pre-tournament was backable at odds of over 200/1. Albeit finishing seven shots down on the eventual winner, he played far better than a 200/1 shot should.

South African Charl Schwartzel made a good start to the tournament and was leading at one stage, but a shot into the lake on round three effectively ended his chances.

At the mid-point of the tournament, following several hours stat picking at PGAtour.com, the best selection turned out to be Jerry Kelly (30.4 avg), who'd started the tournament a long, long outsider but a strong finish (as the stats show he does tend to make) saw him finish third, two shots behind the eventual winner.

In summary, my lack of each-way betting has cost me a few quid and the tournament ended with a 7pts loss. Not a great boost before Cheltenham, but with a busy betting week planned, there's plenty of chances yet!

1pt Jerry Kelly @ 30.4 (average odds)
1pt Matt Kuchar @ 14.0
0.5pt Greg Chalmers @ 130.0
0.5pt Chris Couch @ 98.0
0.5pt Stuart Appleby @ 17.0

If no winner, I'll finish up -9pts for the tournament. My lowest winner would put me in profit +4 pts and highest priced winner +49pts.

I may trade on one or two after the third round, depending on prices available going into the crucial final round.

1pt Jenkins to beat Whitlock @ 3.75
1pt Lewis 8-5 Webster @ 8.0
1pt Anderson to beat Wade @ 1.66
1pt Taylor 8-5 RVB @ 7.60

1pt G McDowell @ 15.5
1pt L Donald @ 15.5
1pt V Singh @ 24.0
0.5pt Y Yang @ 44.0
0.25pt T Immelman @ 152.0

Late Additions
1pt R McIlroy @ 19.5
0.5pt C Schwartzel @ 52.0
0.25pt Blake Adams @ 725.0

Even Later Additions, for players who tend to start well, in the hope their price comes down a chunk and provide a layable opportunity.
0.25pt Steve Marino @ 80.0
0.25pt Tom Gillis @ 235.0
0.25pt Gary Woodland @ 205.0

I'll start making my own selections after analysing the stats on Saturday morning, before the start of the third round.  Almost three quarters of PGA Tour event winners were in the top five on the post- second round leaderboard, so if we have no ties amongst the top five, each has a 0.75 x 0.20 = 0.15 chance of winning, fair odds of 6.67 (for you value hunters).  Not interested in these probabilities yet, there are more stats to devour!

The next area to look at is the par 4 scoring average - who out of our top five is the most consistent?  Adjust your probabilities accordingly.  Now, the Honda Classic has a unique performance indicator in the penultimate three holes - 15, 16 & 17 - the 'Bear Trap' - a tricky par-10 trio that is going to catch out even some of the best throughout the first two days.  Have any of the players perfomed particularly well on this section so far?  Anyone shown any signs of weakness?  I'm hoping to come out of this analysis with a couple of selections to back and follow over the final two days.

Picking a winner of this tournament would aid the Cheltenham Betting fund.

There's a certain degree of thought going into each bet - so far they have just been "total goals to be one or more", in football markets where a 0-0 scoreline is statistically unlikely.  Where opportunites arise, I will include a variety of other sports, but for the initial bank building, these football markets are readily available with enough liquidity.

Bets so far have been:

Bet 1: £10 one or more goals Liverpool vs Sp Prague @ 1.09 WON new bank £10.85

Bet 2: £10.85 one or more goals Notts Co v Charlton @ 1.08 WON new bank £11.68

Bet 3: £11.68, One or more goals, Swansea v Leeds @ 1.08 WON new bank £12.56

Bet 4: £12.56 one or more goals Wigan v Man Utd @ 1.07 WON new bank £13.39

Bet 5: £13.39 one or more goals Motherwell v Celtic @ 1.05 WON new bank £14.04

Bet 6: £14.04 one or more goals Sampdoria v Inter @ 1.10 WON new bank £15.37

Bet 7: £15.37 one or more goals Milan v Napoli @ 1.09 WON new bank £16.68

I will provide regular updates each week on the progress.  When the bank gets to £20, I will withdraw my original £10 stake and continue with risk-free betting, maybe increasing the odds of selections slightly.  The aim will then be to turn £10 into £100.  If I fail before the £20 target, it's only a tenner for a bit of fun.

If you are a Punter's Lounge forum member, you can keep up to date daily on my thread.