The Honda Classic: Debrief
So the Honda Classic has passed and left me feeling rather frustrated as Sabbatini fluffed his lines on the final round, but had already built up too big a lead to be challenged. Had either YE Yang or Jerry Kelly have scored a couple less shots, I'd have been in good profit.
My pre-tournament picks gave me Yang (odds of 44.0) who finished second (8 under par) and McDowell (15.5) tied for sixth (one under). Singh, Marino, Gillis and Immelman all failed to make the cut. I was very impressed by Gary Woodland, a player who pre-tournament was backable at odds of over 200/1. Albeit finishing seven shots down on the eventual winner, he played far better than a 200/1 shot should.
South African Charl Schwartzel made a good start to the tournament and was leading at one stage, but a shot into the lake on round three effectively ended his chances.
At the mid-point of the tournament, following several hours stat picking at PGAtour.com, the best selection turned out to be Jerry Kelly (30.4 avg), who'd started the tournament a long, long outsider but a strong finish (as the stats show he does tend to make) saw him finish third, two shots behind the eventual winner.
In summary, my lack of each-way betting has cost me a few quid and the tournament ended with a 7pts loss. Not a great boost before Cheltenham, but with a busy betting week planned, there's plenty of chances yet!
Honda Classic: The Midpoint
At the midpoint in the tournament, I've turned to the stats and come up with a few unbacked selections to direct my funds towards.
1pt Jerry Kelly @ 30.4 (average odds)
1pt Matt Kuchar @ 14.0
0.5pt Greg Chalmers @ 130.0
0.5pt Chris Couch @ 98.0
0.5pt Stuart Appleby @ 17.0
If no winner, I'll finish up -9pts for the tournament. My lowest winner would put me in profit +4 pts and highest priced winner +49pts.
I may trade on one or two after the third round, depending on prices available going into the crucial final round.
Honda Classic: Selections
Had a few small stake bets on the following to win the Honda Classic at the pre-tournament stage. The main money will be going on after the second round, as detailed in yesterday's post.
1pt G McDowell @ 15.5
1pt L Donald @ 15.5
1pt V Singh @ 24.0
0.5pt Y Yang @ 44.0
0.25pt T Immelman @ 152.0
Late Additions
1pt R McIlroy @ 19.5
0.5pt C Schwartzel @ 52.0
0.25pt Blake Adams @ 725.0
Even Later Additions, for players who tend to start well, in the hope their price comes down a chunk and provide a layable opportunity.
0.25pt Steve Marino @ 80.0
0.25pt Tom Gillis @ 235.0
0.25pt Gary Woodland @ 205.0
The Honda Classic 2011
The Honda Classic tees off on Thursday 3rd March on the PGA National Champions Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. I'll usually have a couple of outright bets pre-tournament, just for a bit of interest, but as my golf knowledge isn't great, I'll stick to a few big names or take advice from those who know more about it than I do. This year, I'll be following the selections of Racing Post's Steve Palmer - who has just released a new book.
I'll start making my own selections after analysing the stats on Saturday morning, before the start of the third round. Almost three quarters of PGA Tour event winners were in the top five on the post- second round leaderboard, so if we have no ties amongst the top five, each has a 0.75 x 0.20 = 0.15 chance of winning, fair odds of 6.67 (for you value hunters). Not interested in these probabilities yet, there are more stats to devour!
The next area to look at is the par 4 scoring average - who out of our top five is the most consistent? Adjust your probabilities accordingly. Now, the Honda Classic has a unique performance indicator in the penultimate three holes - 15, 16 & 17 - the 'Bear Trap' - a tricky par-10 trio that is going to catch out even some of the best throughout the first two days. Have any of the players perfomed particularly well on this section so far? Anyone shown any signs of weakness? I'm hoping to come out of this analysis with a couple of selections to back and follow over the final two days.
Picking a winner of this tournament would aid the Cheltenham Betting fund.
Snooker: The Welsh Open
Snooker is one of my favourite "day-off" sports. When I'm not at work, there's nothing better than sitting back, feet up, cup of tea in hand reading a book or magazine with snooker on in the background.
In any first round competition, you're going to have fairly short priced favourites who should win. Stars like Neil Robertson, Ronnie O'Sullivan, John Higgins et al, should all be progressing to the next stage, at least. In these matches I tend to look away from the outrights, as a strong favourite in a 7 frame game will be too short. The places to look are the handicap market, +/-1.5 frames are on offer for each match or also to the correct score market.
For my first round bets I chose to do a perm on the correct scores involving the two Tuesday evening games and the two Wednesday afternoon games. Correct scores pay around 4/1 (5.0) depending on the score, and for the bet I would pick two scores from four matches, which results in 16 fourfold accumulators. To win, each match must finish with one of the two scores chosen. Games I class as tough games I have selected 4-2 and 4-3 victories, and easier matches 4-1 and 4-2. It's rare to see 4-0 in these first round matches.
The selections are as follows and to 1pt unit stakes, the shortest priced return would be over 100pts profit.
Dott to beat Burnett - 4-1 or 4-2
Robertson to beat Bond - 4-1 or 4-2
Hendry to beat Perry - 4-2 or 4-3
Maguire to beat Greene - 4-2 or 4-3
Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Not so much a blog post, more an advice of a selection for the upcoming pro-am Golf in Pebble Beach.
Blake Adams has had a troubled career - injuries blighting his early years but progressively things improved throughout 2008 and 2009, where he led a tournament, but dropped two shots to finish second. Last year saw a top-10 finish at the Pebble Beach pro-am and a three-way tie for second in the Byron Nelson Championship.
He's one of just four entrants into this year's tournament who holds a course stroke average under 70 which should stand him in good stead for a crack at improving on second this year.
Betfair currently offer 450.0 for Adams to win the tournament, which represents a 0.22% chance of winning. In truth, I think they're probably right - if he's in a good position, he has history of dropping shots under pressure in the latter stages of a competition. I've staked 0.5 pts on the win with a view to laying off when his odds drop below 50.0.
Selection: Blake Adams @ 450.0 at Betfair. 0.5pts win.
Superbowl XLV
I know nothing about American Football. I've never watched a game of American Football. However, with all the hype and the struggle to find anything to put into a cross-sport treble for Monday, has left me wanting a bet on this.
I've decided to approach the game from a "value" perspective, using a combination of statistics, which have some rather interesting results.
If you pool all of the games played in the regular (17 week) season together, Green Bay Packers' total score would be 388-240 and Pittsburgh Steelers would be 375-224. The Steelers score 13 less points, but concede 16 less. Pretty well matched. When you delve deeper into the stats, it reveals that GBP score 63.3% of the points in each game in which they are involved - Steelers 61.9%.
Obviously if the two sides met, they couldn't both take over 50% of the points, so the adjustment would mean that if GBP and PS played each other, GBP would take 49.7% of the points and PS 50.3%. Pretty tight. From this limited data set, we can imply that Packers have a 49.7% chance of winning the game and PS 50.3%. The implied "fair" odds would be GBP @ 2.01 and PS @ 1.99. If anyone offers odds greater than this, then it should be considered a value bet. At time of writing, the following prices were available at Paddy Power - GBP @ 1.66 and PS @ 2.25.
Green Bay Packers are much shorter than expected, Pittsburgh Steelers are available at a few ticks bigger than I believe they should be. If I was looking for a single bet, I would probably lay GBP - as the return is greater than the risk. As it's going to form part of a multiple, I'll be backing, not laying.
Conclusion: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 2.25 to win the Superbowl. Will I be watching? No.